Opinions & Interviews
Italian Banks Face the Text of COVID-19
What impact will COVID-19 have on Italian banks? This is the most frequent question in financial circles in these weeks. Today, there is no answer yet. It will take some time. A question we can ask, though, is: what is the condition of Italian banks today compared to the time of the previous crisis, that of 2008? We can answer this question. And actually, this is a first and necessary step to take in order to answer the initial question. We will divide our response into two parts. In the first part, we will analyze what Italian banks have done in terms of: improvement of asset quality, measures ...
Per aspera ad astra: l’Italia e il Covid-19
The current crisis is an unprecedented global challenge in terms of its health, economic, social, and geopolitical impact. As we write, more than 4 billion people in over 100 countries are still living in some sort of lockdown. Each country has chosen its own strategy, adopting a variety of measures in an attempt to fight an unparalleled menace. Political decisions regarding population containment and border closures undeniably play an important role in the match against this epidemic. Specific features of different healthcare systems appear to greatly impact each country’s capacity to face ...
From Sustainable Digital Technologies to CDR
The importance of sustainability has received increasing attention in recent years. The international debate on this issue (environment, shipping, food, the wellbeing of human beings and animals, energy consumption, the waste of food and resources in general, and so on) has inevitably regarded the ICT/digital sector as well. Years ago, there was talk of "green ICT" with particular reference to the energy consumption and CO2 production by ICT systems, especially of large computing centers of public and private companies and large multinational corporations. To give just a few examples, various ...
European Aid to Businesses: an Overview
The health crisis is now being followed by the economic crisis. In its April outlook the International Monetary Fund forecasts a 9.1 percent drop in Italian GDP for 2020, followed by +4.8 percent growth in 2021. The recently approved DEF foresees a drop of 8 percent, followed by 4.7 growth in 2021. Apart from forecasts - whose reliability is relative, since it is still not possible to fully assess not only the economic consequences, but also the real prospects for recovery, that will inevitably be conditioned by the course of the epidemic - it is clear that the coming months will be very complicated, ...
The Future of Our Banking System
The health side of the coronavirus drama seems to be moving towards a solution, although the timeframe is still not certain and great prudence is required, as the authorities continue to remind us. The economic and financial drama of the pandemic, on the other hand, has still not reached its peak, and no forecasts are possible on what will happen in the second half of 2020, or even in the next two years. Despite the reopening of numerous businesses whose activities were suspended for many weeks, the economy is still suffering from the consequences of this stoppage and all of the effects it will ...
Action plans and uncertainty
These days, we are all looking for ways to cope with a future that looks increasingly uncertain. Uncertainty creates fear. Fear blocks energy, proactivity, and rational thinking; it is capable of completely taking over our mind and derailing our thoughts. Many of us respond to fear and uncertainty with optimism. Optimism is an integral part of our nature: research has shown that neuromodulator dopamine enhances people’s ability to think positively about their future. We are more inclined to change our beliefs when presented with positive pieces of information about the future than to review ...
The Cardinal Points of Phase 2
In recent weeks, the debate has focused exclusively on the need for reopening the economy and the beginning of what is called "phase 2." Many businesses and commercial activities are demanding this, along with their institutional representatives as well. In various cases this is an unjustified request, because for many sectors there is a crisis of demand that will last for months, until people feel safe. For example, if the entire tourism sector were to open up again in two weeks, there would not be sufficient customers to sustain it. Yet there are other sectors (especially intermediate and capital ...
In Search of Lost Profitability
The lead articles in the Financial Times from last February 25 and 26[1] show that European banks are having increasing difficulty finding top managers, since such figures are strongly attracted by the lavish salaries received by their counterparts in the United States. Such managers have become rare on the market in Europe, and almost non-existent within individual banks, that are said not to have adequately prepared for the substitution of those human resources. It is difficult to say if the problem exists for Italian banks as well, but the fact that when a choice must be made they always end ...
Great Evils and Great Errors
To improve, it is necessary to recognize one's mistakes. This is a basic, simple principle that we all learn when we are children, for example while at school: when you make a spelling mistake in a dictation, the teacher highlights it in red. Here you made a mistake, don't do it again. And it doesn't matter if out of a hundred words, seventy were right. You must concentrate on the thirty that you got wrong. We have all been there, yet it seems that many forget this simple principle. The events of recent weeks have tragically highlighted the fact that many errors have been made. We see this in ...
Competition and Concentration between Banks, Neobanks, and Payment Institutions
Competition and concentration are phenomena that simultaneously regard traditional banks, “neobanks,” and payment institutions. The first are proper financial intermediaries; the third are service companies that at least for now, do not intermediate anything; while the second are relatively hybrid entities, although it is difficult to generalize because they are very varied. The evolution of the context in which these three categories of operators act starts from the idea of being able to produce new financial services of various types, especially payment services, in a simple, low-cost, efficient, ...