Economy & Markets
Edited by Donato Masciandaro and Gianmarco Ottaviano
Viral Macroeconomics: Trump, the Fed, and Sentiments
Every time Wall Street takes a rollercoaster ride, someone inevitably evokes the specter of a viral recession. But should we truly fear such recessions? And what role can the Fed play in mitigating this risk? First, what are we talking about? Italian Poet Giovanni Pascoli might describe it as something new–yet ancient. The phenomenon of a viral recession can indeed be characterized as a blend of tradition and innovation. The traditional factor lies in the role of sentiments – or beliefs, or perception – introduced into macroeconomic analysis by John Maynard Keynes as early as 1936. Keynes’s ...
European Capital Markets: The Lost Decade and Draghi’s Wake-Up Call
European stock markets are thriving, but this is not necessarily a sign of a broader positive trend. In fact, if politicians and bureaucrats fail to act, the Union could lose the historic opportunity to create the European capital market it so desperately needs, especially in light of the challenges posed by the "Three Ds"—deglobalization, demographics with declining birth rates, and decarbonization. Having discussed this since 2015, we have already lost a decade. Stock exchanges are having a momentous year, with European ones in the front ranks: Paris, Frankfurt, Milan, Amsterdam, with the ...
Marine and Submarine Routes: the Red Sea and the Future of Global Trade
We tend to think of the global market as a seamless large bazaar where goods from all over the world flow with ease. In reality, it consists of countless bazaars of all sizes, connected by a circular flow of goods. The most important connections are maritime, and they are quite few. For this reason, the attacks on ships off the coast of Yemen raise concerns that may seem exaggerated, considering that very few of these have had significant effects. To put things in perspective: since the beginning of the conflict between Israel and Hamas last October, the Houthis, a group of Yemeni rebels backed ...
Artificial Intelligence, Stock Markets, and “Newton's Lesson”
Stock markets are in good health, but AI-related stocks are performing even better: within the generally positive trend of stock prices, the performance of companies associated with so-called artificial intelligence stands out. It is undeniable that the applications of technologies for the production and distribution of information and knowledge, summarized under the term "artificial intelligence," are influencing the decisions of companies and sectors, and will have macroeconomic impacts—yet to be fully explored systematically—that will affect productivity and the labor market, hence production ...
Western Sanctions and Russia's Resilience: A Dead End?
According to the Russian Statistical Office, 2023 saw the gross domestic product grow by 3.6%, outpacing the average global economic growth. While data from Moscow should be evaluated cautiously, even the IMF revised its estimate to 3%, suggesting that Russia's economy has indeed grown faster than the global average. The oil and gas industry has been at the forefront of supporting Moscow's economic resilience, providing foreign currency to the Kremlin, expanding trade horizons, and generally shifting Russia's economic center of gravity toward Asia. To maintain a steady flow of foreign currency ...
Declining Interest Rates and the Five Faces of the Fed
In recent months, financial markets seem stuck in a repetitive cycle: analysts closely watch US economic indicators to gauge the timing of the Fed's interest rate cuts. This represents the "macroeconomic" face of the Fed. Yet, there are at least four other faces that need attention: the political and bureaucratic ones, followed by the psychological aspect, and not forgetting, albeit last, the financial. Last March, the Fed confirmed its decision to maintain the maximum level of the benchmark interest rate at five hundred and fifty basis points, as decided eight months prior. This phenomenon is ...
Ecological Transition, Carbon Taxation, and the Competitiveness of Businesses: the European Gamble
Climate change is a global problem that requires global solutions. One significant cause of the phenomenon is greenhouse gas emissions associated with high-carbon-intensity production. Left to their own devices, businesses generally do not consider the negative impact of their emissions on the climate when making production decisions. Hence the idea of using a tax on greenhouse gas emissions (also known as a "carbon tax"), which imposes a "fair price" on such emissions for companies, forcing them to internalize the damage caused to the climate by high-carbon-intensity production. Unfortunately, ...
The "Militarization" of Finance between Economics and Politics
Between February 26 and 28 of last year in Brussels, the G7 countries and the European Commission jointly introduced financial sanctions against Russia. Geopolitics suddenly and traumatically entered the realm of monetary and financial policy. What assessment can we make more than a year and a half after that decision, considering the statements by President Putin and state oligarchs aimed at denying that the sanctions have had any effect? The analysis of the facts shows us that at the very least, there are roosters crowing when it is still dark. The starting point is to frame those choices, which ...
New Scenarios of Globalization from Beijing to New Delhi
The summer that just ended was a very active one for the diplomacies of emerging countries, marked by two major summits, the BRICS summit in Johannesburg and the G20 summit in New Delhi. What has changed for the global economy? It seems like quite a lot, but what is particularly surprising is the transformation that occurred in the two weeks between the two summits, during which Beijing quickly withdrew from the stage. Indeed, while President Xi Jinping of China was a protagonist in Johannesburg, he was not seen in New Delhi. For some, this was considered a strategic withdrawal to express dissatisfaction ...
Digital Euro: Moving Forward with Caution and 'Education'
Do we need a digital euro? The answer is affirmative if the ECB keeps its promise to create a complementary public currency that will be useful for European citizens, and also enhance effectiveness from both a monetary policy and banking supervision perspective. We must move forward, but with caution. A middle ground must be found between the skeptical positions of those who, out of ignorance or convenience, do not see the need for this innovation and, on the other extreme, the superficial enthusiasm of those who see the digital euro as the sole currency of the future, replacing both physical ...