Coronavirus emergency

2020-09-21 Cecilia Attanasio Ghezzi

The Great Race for a Vaccine that China Wants to Win

For more than a month the People’s Republic has not recorded any new locally transmitted cases of COVID-19;[1] schools and universities have reopened, and if we don’t consider the restrictions on entering the country and digital contact tracing,[2] everything seems to have returned to how it was prior to the pandemic. The Chinese economy was the first to breathe a sigh of relief, and the “Communist Party for the Chinese people, hit by the storm, has demonstrated the most reliable backbone,” President Xi Jinping declared last September 8, when he gave awards to the SARS-CoV-2 war heroes: ...

2020-09-17 Gianmarco Ottaviano

Anti-COVID Vaccine: A Global Public Good

The events of recent weeks, from the start of the first wave of COVID-19 infections in some countries to the arrival of what seems to be a second wave in others, indicate that the world will have a hard time emerging from the current economic crisis linked to the pandemic if a safe and effective vaccine is not discovered first. There is no precedent in human memory of the health and economic sustenance of so many people depending on a single healthcare intervention; and the hopes of so many people being placed in the hands of a professional category, that of scientists, that in recent years has ...

2020-07-09 Cecilia Attanasio Ghezzi

The Solitude of the WHO

"They’re giving [the information] to us 15 minutes before it appears on CCTV," the Chinese state channel. This, according to Gauden Galea, the World Health Organization (WHO) representative in Beijing. His words clearly describe the UN agency's frustration toward China at the beginning of January, with the attempt to scrape up the little information available on the new coronavirus, the one that has now infected almost 12 million people around the world, provoking over 550,000 deaths. This statement is part of an account by the United States news agency Associated Press[1] that confirms the ...

2020-07-07 Gianluca Meloni, Marco Morelli

Forecasting in Times of Uncertainty: It Can Be Done

The Covid-19 emergency has caused a strong change in the business models of companies in many sectors. For some of them it has simply been an accelerator, for others something absolutely new. It is inevitable that, faced with this path of evolution, control systems, that have the goal of supporting decision-making processes and orienting management behavior, cannot be left out of this change. In particular, in a context characterized by a high level of discontinuity with respect to the past and by high levels of uncertainty, above all traditional tools for forecasting results and setting goals ...

Banche 3
2020-06-24 Gimede Gigante, Rodolfo Pambianco

Italian Banks Face the Text of COVID-19

What impact will COVID-19 have on Italian banks? This is the most frequent question in financial circles in these weeks. Today, there is no answer yet. It will take some time. A question we can ask, though, is: what is the condition of Italian banks today compared to the time of the previous crisis, that of 2008? We can answer this question. And actually, this is a first and necessary step to take in order to answer the initial question. We will divide our response into two parts. In the first part, we will analyze what Italian banks have done in terms of: improvement of asset quality, measures ...

2020-05-27 Rosanna Tarricone, Aleksandra Torbica, Valeria D. Tozzi

Per Aspera ad Astra: Italy And Covid-19

The current crisis is an unprecedented global challenge in terms of its health, economic, social, and geopolitical impact. As we write, more than 4 billion people in over 100 countries are still living in some sort of lockdown. Each country has chosen its own strategy, adopting a variety of measures in an attempt to fight an unparalleled menace. Political decisions regarding population containment and border closures undeniably play an important role in the match against this epidemic. Specific features of different healthcare systems appear to greatly impact each country’s capacity to face ...

2020-05-20 Niccolò Cusumano, Velia Leone, Veronica Vecchi

European Aid to Businesses: an Overview

The health crisis is now being followed by the economic crisis. In its April outlook the International Monetary Fund forecasts a 9.1 percent drop in Italian GDP for 2020, followed by +4.8 percent growth in 2021. The recently approved DEF foresees a drop of 8 percent, followed by 4.7 growth in 2021. Apart from forecasts - whose reliability is relative, since it is still not possible to fully assess not only the economic consequences, but also the real prospects for recovery, that will inevitably be conditioned by the course of the epidemic - it is clear that the coming months will be very complicated, ...

2020-05-18 Gianmarco Ottaviano

We Are Not All in the Same Boat

The COVID-19 pandemic is hitting the economies of every country in the world harshly, provoking an unprecedented employment emergency in many of them. An emblematic case, due to the importance of the country and the speed of the effects, is that of the United States. Before the pandemic, the US economy was on a solid track, with an unemployment rate that had reached a historic low of 3.5 percent in February, when China had already stopped. In March, when Europeans began to hole up at home, the US employment rate had risen to a moderate 4.4 percent. Just one month later, the data for April (the ...

Real estate_covid
2020-05-07 Andrea Beltratti, Alessia Bezzecchi

The World to Come

In 1963, Charles Eric Maine published The Darkest of Nights, translated into Italian and published in 1973 with the title Il grande contagio. The novel explores the social aspects that emerged due to the spread of a new, highly contagious virus, with a mortality rate of 50 percent, that emerged in Japan and spread throughout China and Russia. Nobody knows how we will manage co-existence with COVID-19 and when a vaccine will be available. What is certain from the start, is that our life will be different, because "health risk" will be a central element in the risk management activities of companies ...

2020-05-06 Stefano Basaglia, Fabrizio Perretti

Restaurants “Suspended in Time” during the COVID-19 Crisis

Social distancing is the very ancient technique that has proven effective to face the COVID-19 emergency. While it is true that the measures have had consequences on all sectors, there are some that have suffered more than others, because their businesses based on “sociality,” where being together with others and sharing experiences is the key feature. In both generalist and specialized media, an ample debate has arisen on how restaurants are dealing with the emergency and what their future may look like. The discussion is pervaded by an underlying uncertainty, because the solutions are “all ...