
Public debt and interest rates: the compass dilemma
Let’s start with the facts. The incoming German government coalition has reached an agreement to increase public spending by 500 billion euros, easing both formal and cultural constraints on spending, deficits, and debt – particularly with regard to defense. Following the announcement, German bond yields rose. But does this market reaction reflect optimism or concern? An empirical analysis applied the following method to this specific event: when there is an unexpected economic policy announcement, the market’s verdict can be inferred by observing a set of indicators. The study compares ...