Focus Africa

2024-10-21 Gianmario Verona

Making Decisions in the Era of Complexity

Most future predictions are made by extrapolating from past events. But in complex systems, instability surfaces, stemming not from one or two elements, but from myriad variables and all their interconnections. Prediction becomes impossible. So how can we make future-forward decisions? Awareness, caution, problem framing, an inside-out approach, and continuous "incrementalism": these tools certainly won’t help us predict complexity, but they give us a wise way to prepare for future decisions.

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