Economy & Markets

In relations with Venezuela – and more broadly with South America – Donald Trump has revived the Monroe Doctrine. A formula long used by U.S. presidents to exercise political dominance, whose economic counterpart has been a system of monetary dominance centered on the dollar as the paradigm of a stable currency. This time, however, it is different: the current occupant of the White House seeks a dominant yet depreciated dollar. It is a design fraught with risks of instability – not only economic – whose consequences are difficult to foresee. Not least because uncertainty may arise from another source: the stance of the Federal Reserve toward the network of safety arrangements among central banks designed to safeguard international financial stability. Since the change in occupant at the White House, there have been few fixed points. And the new combination of assertive foreign policy and a potentially disorderly monetary strategy may generate uncertainty and macroeconomic volatility, not only for the United States but for the entire “dollar bloc.”