Innovation & Growth

Making Decisions in the Era of Complexity

The fundamental problem we face in a complex environment is our limited capacity to make predictions. Cases in point: At year’s end 2021, who thought that Putin would have the nerve to challenge the West by invading Ukraine just weeks after New Year's? An invasion that sparked an energy crisis that further fueled the upsurge in inflation, the economic demon that was almost forgotten for years. And in late 2000, who could have even imagined 9/11 happening the following year? (Back then, the United States was working on a space shield to defend against a new Cold War; Al Qaeda’s international ...