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Western Sanctions and Russia's Resilience: A Dead End?
According to the Russian Statistical Office, 2023 saw the gross domestic product grow by 3.6%, outpacing the average global economic growth. While data from Moscow should be evaluated cautiously, even the IMF revised its estimate to 3%, suggesting that Russia's economy has indeed grown faster than the global average. The oil and gas industry has been at the forefront of supporting Moscow's economic ...
Public debt and interest rates: the compass dilemma
Let’s start with the facts. The incoming German government coalition has reached an agreement to increase public spending by 500 billion euros, easing both formal and cultural constraints on spending, deficits, and debt – particularly with regard to defense. Following the announcement, German bond yields rose. But does this market reaction reflect optimism or concern? An empirical analysis applied ...
Doing business in a changing world: how Italian managers can lead the future of export
Director Battocchi, the global landscape is entering a new cycle of tensions and instability. Amid regional conflicts, trade restrictions, and the renewed focus on economic security, how are Italian companies coping with these shifts in their international operations? The Italian economy is highly diversified across sectors. We rank among the world’s top three exporters in roughly 1,000 out of 5,000 ...
Geoeconomics and protectionism: the harsh law of the hammer
The trajectory of globalization shows that international trade does not follow a linear or irreversible path, but reflects a fragile balance among economic interests, political power, and conflicting ideological visions. After decades of market liberalization and faith in the multilateral institutions born after World War II, today’s global economic order is undergoing profound transformation. The ...
Cash and digital money: beware the Stockholm syndrome
The digital euro is a public investment that needs to be made as soon as possible. Europe must maintain both physical and digital euros. The rationale is straightforward: the less public money is used, the greater the risk of becoming hostage to private and foreign monies – often without realizing it, and even inadvertently encouraging them. This is a kind of Stockholm syndrome, and it is precisely ...
Viral Macroeconomics: Trump, the Fed, and Sentiments
Every time Wall Street takes a rollercoaster ride, someone inevitably evokes the specter of a viral recession. But should we truly fear such recessions? And what role can the Fed play in mitigating this risk? First, what are we talking about? Italian Poet Giovanni Pascoli might describe it as something new–yet ancient. The phenomenon of a viral recession can indeed be characterized as a blend of ...
Italy's Economic Future: What Exports Reveal
Financially speaking, whether exports exceed imports or vice versa is generally insignificant. Exports represent surplus goods and services that cannot be absorbed domestically and that our trade partners kindly accept in exchange for goods and services we lack. When exports surpass imports, we effectively extend credit to foreign customers; when the reverse happens, we take on debt with them. Sometimes ...
Trump, the Dollar and the Euro
In the wake of Donald Trump's second term as President of the United States, global attention has turned to the future of the dollar and its implications for the world economy. From a short-term economic analysis perspective, the dollar has appreciated, influenced in part by the tariff policies first announced and later implemented by the newly elected president. What does this mean for ...
A Synergy of Public and Private in Space Exploration
The first phase in the history of human exploration of space, in the 1950s and ’60s, saw a pre-eminent role of government: public investment in the military field and the missions to the moon set off processes of technological innovation with very positive spinoffs for the economies as a whole, as in the case of the development of satellite technologies,#Since the 1970s, more and more private corporations ...
Trade Opportunities and Possible Perils
Transatlantic trade and the rethinking of supply chains, to be less tilted towards China, have returned to the center of debate in America and Europe. There is a different environment, probably determined by the freezing of tariffs, that is inspiring trust both in Brussels and in markets and businesses.#Many financial analysts are of the opinion that the American economy is heading into a period of ...