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Gianmarco Ottaviano

Western Sanctions and Russia's Resilience: A Dead End?

According to the Russian Statistical Office, 2023 saw the gross domestic product grow by 3.6%, outpacing the average global economic growth. While data from Moscow should be evaluated cautiously, even the IMF revised its estimate to 3%, suggesting that Russia's economy has indeed grown faster than the global average. The oil and gas industry has been at the forefront of supporting Moscow's economic ...

Donato Masciandaro

Public debt and interest rates: the compass dilemma

Let’s start with the facts. The incoming German government coalition has reached an agreement to increase public spending by 500 billion euros, easing both formal and cultural constraints on spending, deficits, and debt – particularly with regard to defense. Following the announcement, German bond yields rose. But does this market reaction reflect optimism or concern? An empirical analysis applied ...

E&M Plus

Doing business in a changing world: how Italian managers can lead the future of export

Director Battocchi, the global landscape is entering a new cycle of tensions and instability. Amid regional conflicts, trade restrictions, and the renewed focus on economic security, how are Italian companies coping with these shifts in their international operations? The Italian economy is highly diversified across sectors. We rank among the world’s top three exporters in roughly 1,000 out of 5,000 ...

Gianmarco Ottaviano

Geoeconomics and protectionism: the harsh law of the hammer

The trajectory of globalization shows that international trade does not follow a linear or irreversible path, but reflects a fragile balance among economic interests, political power, and conflicting ideological visions. After decades of market liberalization and faith in the multilateral institutions born after World War II, today’s global economic order is undergoing profound transformation. The ...

Donato Masciandaro

Cash and digital money: beware the Stockholm syndrome

The digital euro is a public investment that needs to be made as soon as possible. Europe must maintain both physical and digital euros. The rationale is straightforward: the less public money is used, the greater the risk of becoming hostage to private and foreign monies – often without realizing it, and even inadvertently encouraging them. This is a kind of Stockholm syndrome, and it is precisely ...

Donato Masciandaro

Viral Macroeconomics: Trump, the Fed, and Sentiments

Every time Wall Street takes a rollercoaster ride, someone inevitably evokes the specter of a viral recession. But should we truly fear such recessions? And what role can the Fed play in mitigating this risk? First, what are we talking about? Italian Poet Giovanni Pascoli might describe it as something new–yet ancient. The phenomenon of a viral recession can indeed be characterized as a blend of ...

Gianmarco Ottaviano

Italy's Economic Future: What Exports Reveal

Financially speaking, whether exports exceed imports or vice versa is generally insignificant. Exports represent surplus goods and services that cannot be absorbed domestically and that our trade partners kindly accept in exchange for goods and services we lack. When exports surpass imports, we effectively extend credit to foreign customers; when the reverse happens, we take on debt with them. Sometimes ...

Donato Masciandaro

Trump, the Dollar and the Euro

In the wake of Donald Trump's second term as President of the United States, global attention has turned to the future of the dollar and its implications for the world economy. From a short-term economic analysis perspective, the dollar has appreciated, influenced in part by the tariff policies first announced and later implemented by the newly elected president. What does this mean for ...

Donato Masciandaro

Trump and the Monroe Doctrine 2.0: between political dominance and monetary instability

“The Monroe Doctrine is a big deal, but we've superseded it by a lot, by a real lot. They now call it the Donroe doctrine.” These were Donald Trump’s words, spoken just hours after the Maduro operation in Venezuela. Leaving aside yet another demonstration that modesty is hardly the defining virtue of the current occupant of the White House, what does this mean? In December 1823, President Monroe, ...

Gianmarco Ottaviano

Digital trade: who sets the rules in the absence of a global agreement?

The Ministerial Conference of the World Trade Organization is the summit that periodically brings together the trade ministers of member countries and represents the institution’s highest decision-making body. The latest took place at the end of March in Yaoundé, in Cameroon, and marked something more than a negotiating impasse. Among the central dossiers was the so-called moratorium on customs ...